Whether the United States does not raise interest rates are not accidental www.k8k8.com

Both the United States and not to raise interest rates is not surprising the sina finance opinion leader column (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Xiao Lei according to the current level of CPI, interest rate hike or not, are acceptable. In the current American economy, you can cite one hundred examples of prosperity, as well as one hundred cautionary and pessimistic data. Fed officials can be free to raise interest rates or no interest rate hike speech, because the interest rate hike or not to raise interest rates, the market will not feel what kind of results are more surprising. Whether or not the United States does not raise interest rates is not surprising Buffett said that even if the Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan secretly told me his next two years of monetary policy, I will not change any of my. For most investors, certainly do not like Buffett’s confidence, indifferent and patience, there should be as much as possible from the tactics to understand the Fed interest rate adjustment logic, on the other hand to disdain it strategically. A rate hike or not to hike, they should not be surprised by the Fed interest rate decision factors more and more, but I only do correlation interpretation on the one hand, in order to pick out the key, grasp the key, see clearly the essence. Over the past more than and 20 years, the Fed rate hike cycle, with the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) cycle is basically the same, except for the two stages. Figure 1 is the first stage: from 1993 to 1998, the fed by raising interest rates, the federal funds target rate remained at more than 5%, significantly higher than in the year of 1992 of 3%. But from 1993 to 1998, the U.S. CPI index is a decline in the whole, is to maintain high interest rates reverse. This results in two consequences: one is pulled the trigger and the NASDAQ bubble, stocks adjustment; another consequence is that pierced the high-speed development of the Asian economy, the Asian financial crisis in 1997 to a number of Asian economies currency devaluation, economic recession. Then from June 1999 to June 2000, the U.S. market CPI index showed a significant upward trend, fed with its keen sense of smell and confidence, in June 1999 to May 2000, again will be the target for the federal funds rate increased from 4.75% to 6.5%, while the NASDAQ bubble has accelerated, but at the same time, the euro traded by US dollar to the impact to a minimum (detailed). The second stage is: the end of 2009 to early 2011, the United States continued to rise in CPI, but the fed not only did not raise interest rates, but also maintained a fairly radical QE. For the reason, may be worried about the impact of the U.S. capital markets, such as interest rate hike from June 1999 to June 2000. From 2009 to 2011, the United States still remain the subprime crisis panic, with 1999 to 2000 has just experienced the Asian financial turmoil is similar. The difference is that this time the United States did not choose to raise interest rates significantly higher in the CPI, because there is no need. Indeed, CPI index continued to rise in the boost and low interest rates and QE, but since 2011)相关的主题文章: