Wang Jinchuan’s retail data didn’t scare us, and the dollar continued to shake-autobots

Wang Jinchuan: the retail data do not panic the dollar continues to shock US retail sales data released Thursday evening released monthly rate value is -0.3%, the expected value of a -0.1% value of 0%, the data from the April hit a new high for the year basically in decline, also released in 9 The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index was 12.8, far higher than the the expected 1 and the previous value of 2, the data record highs for the year, it also eased the retail data leads to the bad, before or after the rise of the dollar index yesterday evening, overall yesterday evening data did not lead to market panic, the market did not have any sound judgment on the Fed interest rate week, the closer the Fed interest rate market performance is more dull time. The CPI data and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released tonight, or the data will bring a brief volatility of the disk. Once the CPI data decline, perhaps the market volatility will exceed the data price last night. The analysis chart of $1 from the technical index: the daily chart in triangle finishing shut down after the rapid pace of regional, K-line slowly rebound trend line pressure adjustment, rebound in slow, once fell below the 95 mark has broken down trend line, to the 94 party under the operation, of course the next week with the interest rate conversely, may also appear before or after the rise, it is a continuation of this period by the end of last year’s trend, continued speculation of interest rate expectations. But in the short run, the dollar index is more likely to test the downward trend line. Figure 2: the dollar will be $varieties has emphasized the benchmark, from the daily chart trend go is very regular, whether the number or combination of symmetry principle K K line after May this year has been repeatedly verified in 1.3, is at the bottom of the neckline Canada, since September 7th 1.2830 rebound to near above 1.3200 run 7 K-line rebound, arrived yesterday early high point regional adjustments, in accordance with the normal K-line form this position need to adjust the 2-3 K-line, after testing support to continue to start the bull market, the 1 hour chart is 28 and 55 average starting prices, the average in the top form adhesive pressing, this round of rising also the average end, yesterday evening 1.3200 near empty one can continue to hold, can create empty days in the vicinity of 1.3160, breaking 1.3200 stop to leave, target 1 .3120 to run near the 1.3060 powei. The euro against the dollar: the recent trend of the euro is a variety of the most law-abiding the most stable, for more than 1 weeks to maintain the shock in the interval of 100 points, the daily chart in the top 1.1200 continuous shocks, 1 hours low in elevation, below the average adhesion surface support, the market is waiting for a chance 1.1200 above, the establishment of more than a single can wait to break open 1.1300 short-term gains, once fell below 1.1190 will need to stop to leave, the interval may be required to be carried out next Thursday, before finishing the longer there will be greater volatility next week.   。

王金传:零售数据没能引发恐慌美元继续震荡   周四晚间公布美国零售销售数据月率,公布值为-0.3%,预期值位-0.1%前值为0%,该数据从4月份创出年内新高后基本处于下滑状态,同时公布的9月费城联储制造业指数为12.8,远远高于预期的1和前值的2,该数据创出了年内的高点,这也缓和了零售数据的利空,导致了昨天晚间美元指数出现先跌后涨,整体来看昨天晚间的数据并没有引发市场的恐慌,市场也没出现任何声音对下周美联储利率的评判,越接近美联储利率的时间市场表现的越发平淡。   今天晚间还将公布CPI数据以及密歇根大学消费者信心指数,还是要关注数据带来了盘面的短暂波动,一旦CPI数据下滑,或许今天晚上的行情波动会超过昨天晚上的数据行情。   从技术面来分析盘面的走势 图1   美元指数:日线图处于三角整理收口区域,K线节奏快速下跌后缓慢反弹到趋势线压力位再调整,反弹力度在减缓,一旦跌破95.00关口存在往下破趋势线,往94下方运行,当然这个需要下周利率的配合,反之也可能出现先跌后涨,那么就是延续了去年这个时段的走势,继续炒作年底加息的预期。但是在短期内美元指数测试下方趋势线的可能性比较大。 图2   美元兑加元:这个品种一直强调会是美元的风向标,从日线图的走势来看走的是很有规律,无论是K线的数量组合还是K线的对称原则今年5月份过后都是一直在反复验证,1.3是美加的底部颈线位,9月7号自1.2830附近反弹到1.3200上方运行了7根K线的反弹,昨天到达前期的高点区域出现调整,按照正常的K线形态这个位置需要调整2-3根K线,测试支撑后才能继续启动多头行情,1小时图是28和55均线启动的行情,目前均线在上方形成粘合压制,这轮上涨也该均线来终结,昨天晚间1.3200附近的空单可以继续持有,日内可以在1.3160附近建立空单,突破1.3200止损离场,目标1.3120破位就往1.3060附近运行。   欧元兑美元:近期欧元的走势算是最安分最稳定的一个品种,连续1个多星期维持在100个点的区间内震荡,日线图在1.1200上方连续震荡,1小时图低点在抬高,下方均线出现粘合支撑,表面市场都是在等一个机会,1.1200上方建立多单可以等待向上突破1.1300打开短期的涨势,一旦跌破1.1190就需要止损离场,这个区间可能是需要到下周四才能展开,在这之前整理的时间越久下周出现的波动会越大。   英镑兑美元:近期公布的一系列英国经济数据都相对来说不是太差,但是这两周英镑的表现确实较为弱势,英镑的特性历来都是需要炒作,如果真是市场往利空的方面来打压那么最近英镑的下跌幅度不会是这么小,而且经济数据并未表现出来经济在萎缩,昨天晚上英国央行[微博]的会议纪要表现较为中性,未提及到未来的宽松可能,对于英镑的走势要防止是打压来吸收筹码。   日线图55均线在1.3160附近,周二出现下跌达到均线附近,随后几天出现震荡,均线走平,近期英镑的下跌空间将会有限,会出现逢低买入的机会,或者布局操作,1.3200-1.3160之间建立多单,跌破1.3130止损离场,突破1.3300加仓做多,目标1.3500附近 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: