The convertible bonds rose contrarian volatility fell to enhance the margin of safety-www.dde8.com

The convertible bonds rose contrarian volatility fell to enhance the margin of Safety – reporter Wang Hui A shares in February to start is still weak, but once again out of the independent market of convertible bonds. Analysts pointed out that the last half of last week, the bond market continued to reverse the trend of positive stock rebound, indicating that after the rise in the valuation security margin, the bond gradually by hedge funds or rebound funds attention. But considering the stocks are weak, and the bond market is still a distance away from the bottom, to enhance the safety margin, is expected in the next period of time the bond market will continue to be main concussion. After a short rebound last Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in February (February 1st) ushered in "open green" in the first trading day on Monday". The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.78%, 1.02% and 1.53% respectively. In the context of the sluggish performance of the A share market, the market for convertible bonds continued to rise modestly on Monday. The CSI bond index rose 0.22%, recorded the daily 4 with yang. Disk display, Monday CSI convertible bond index opened slightly higher in early trading after the rapid rush, and ultimately due to the A share market dragged down, failed to further expand the gains. By the end of the session, the CSI convertible bond index was at 288.06 points, up 0.62 points or 0.22%, rising for fourth consecutive trading days. Coupons, Monday two cities convertible bonds are mixed. In the normal transaction, 12 convertible bonds (including exchangeable debt), 5 rose, 1 flat, 6 fell. The last Friday just listed on the Kyushu bonds rose 1.50% all day long, the first 14 increase; Baosteel EB fell 1.08%, down the first column. By the end of Monday, the premium rate of convertible bonds in the two cities was between 20.71% and 125.05%, most concentrated in the range of 50% to 90%; the pure debt premium rate ranged from 5.84% to 31.17%. A small amount of participation in the heavy injection, after the beginning of January to the middle of this period of continuous decline, since late January, the convertible bond market continues to outperform A shares. In this regard, the agency believes that before the fierce "kill valuation", the valuation of the bond market bubble risk release has temporarily come to an end. Although there is still a distance from the historic bottom, the security margin of convertible bonds has improved, and the income risk ratio has been repaired. Societe Generale Securities report pointed out that, from the absolute price, the conversion premium rate and other aspects, the current bond price and historical bottom gap. Compared with the historical bottom period, the overall pattern of the current bond market is similar to the state of 2014. Although the variety of convertible bonds in terms of imagination is low, but the current stock of convertible bonds is still less, and the bond yield compared to the early 2014 downward range of more than 150bp, these two points will support the formation of the bond price. Overall, at present, the bond price trend is still affected by the positive stock, but when the convertible bonds are relatively bottom, the market volatility will also decline significantly. CITIC Securities report pointed out that since the beginning of the bond market system adjustment has basically ended, the latter market rebound can be expected, but still a high valuation level will hinder the market theory

转债波动下降逆势小涨 安全边际仍待提升    □本报记者 王辉    A股2月开局依然乏力,可转债却再度走出独立行情。分析人士指出,上周后半周以来转债市场持续逆正股走势反弹,显示在估值安全边际上升后,转债逐渐受到避险资金或博反弹资金的关注。但考虑到正股走势羸弱,且转债市价距离底部仍有距离,安全边际仍待提升,预计今后一段时间转债市场仍将以震荡走势为主。    转债逆势小涨    经过上周五的短暂反弹,周一(2月1日)沪深股市在2月首个交易日迎来“开门绿”。当日上证综指、深证成指、沪深300指数分别下挫1.78%、1.02%和1.53%。在A股市场整体表现低迷的背景下,周一可转债市场则继续温和上涨。当日中证转债指数收高0.22%,录得日线4连阳。    盘面显示,周一中证转债指数早盘微幅高开后一度快速冲高,终因A股行情拖累,未能进一步扩大涨幅。至收盘时,中证转债指数报288.06点,涨0.62点或0.22%,连续第4个交易日走高。    个券方面,周一两市转债涨跌互现。正常交易中的12只转债(含可交换债),有5只上涨、1只收平、6只下跌。其中上周五刚刚挂牌上市的九州转债全天收高1.50%,列涨幅第一位;14宝钢EB跌1.08%,列跌幅第一。    截至周一收盘,两市转债转股溢价率分布在20.71%至125.05%之间,多数集中在50%至90%区间;纯债溢价率则在5.84%至31.17%不等。    少量参与 不下重注    在经过年初到1月中旬这段时间的连续下跌后,1月下旬以来,可转债市场连续跑赢A股。对此,机构认为,在此前猛烈的“杀估值”之后,转债市场估值泡沫风险释放已暂告一段落。尽管与历史性底部尚有距离,但转债安全边际有所提升,收益风险比得到一定的修复。    兴业证券报告指出,从绝对价格、转股溢价率等方面来看,当前转债价格与历史性的底部尚有差距。相较于历史底部时期,当前转债市场整体格局与2014年的状态相似性更高。虽然各转债品种在条款方面想象力偏低,但当前存量转债仍然较少,而且债市收益率相比2014年初下行幅度超过150bp,这两点将对转债价格形成支撑。整体来看,现阶段转债价格走势仍受到正股的影响,但在转债处于相对底部时,市场波动率也会明显下降。    中信证券报告指出,年初以来转债市场的系统性调整已基本结束,后期市场反弹可以期待,但依旧较高的估值水平也会阻碍市场的反弹幅度,因此择券也将更加重要。中金公司则进一步建议,现阶段转债市场安全边际有改善但改善空间仍相对不足,在此背景下,建议灵活操作的投资者小赌怡情,暂不下重注。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: